Products related to Uncertainty:
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Do Dice Play God? : The Mathematics of Uncertainty
Uncertainty is everywhere. It lurks in every consideration of the future - the weather, the economy, the sex of an unborn child - even quantities we think that we know such as populations or the transit of the planets contain the possibility of error.It's no wonder that, throughout that history, we have attempted to produce rigidly defined areas of uncertainty - we prefer the surprise party to the surprise asteroid.We began our quest to make certain an uncertain world by reading omens in livers, tea leaves, and the stars.However, over the centuries, driven by curiosity, competition, and a desire be better gamblers, pioneering mathematicians and scientists began to reduce wild uncertainties to tame distributions of probability and statistical inferences.But, even as unknown unknowns became known unknowns, our pessimism made us believe that some problems were unsolvable and our intuition misled us.Worse, as we realized how omnipresent and varied uncertainty is, we encountered chaos, quantum mechanics, and the limitations of our predictive power.Bestselling author Professor Ian Stewart explores the history and mathematics of uncertainty.Touching on gambling, probability, statistics, financial and weather forecasts, censuses, medical studies, chaos, quantum physics, and climate, he makes one thing clear: a reasonable probability is the only certainty.
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Sustainability and Global Challenges : Analysis by Mathematics of Uncertainty
This book focuses on the relationship between Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).One of the most important issues the world is facing is sustainability.All members of the United Nations adopted Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals.Associated with the SDGs are many serious global problems.These problems include climate change, global poverty, global hunger, human trafficking, homelessness, biodiversity, extinction, and terrorism.The author’s purpose is to develop a textbook concerning the SDGs and how they relate to these problems.A recent issue has emerged. That is Artificial Intelligence. AI has tremendous potential to do both good and harm.The book is designed in such a way that it can be used as an undergraduate textbook on sustainability.Consequently, the mathematics involved is kept at a reasonable level.One of the author’s goals is to prepare the reader to further their study of global issues.In particular, to provide them the background needed to examine the three books in the Springer Series Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, volumes 299, 353, and 391.Exercises are provided in the text as well as an instructor's manual.Some topics examined in the book include country achievement of the SDGs, the relationship between human trafficking and the SDGs, climate change, and global problems mentioned above.
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Reckoning with Risk : Learning to Live with Uncertainty
Gerd Gigerenzer's Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight. However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world.But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us?Are we misled by our ignorance of the reality of risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways.With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, or in DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome. 'Indispensable ... The book will change the attentive reader's way of looking at the world' Sunday Telegraph 'An important book ... the reader is presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics ... anyone who wants to take responsibility for their own medical choices should read it' New Scientist 'Gigerenzer makes clear thinking easier' Evening Standard 'More than ever, citizens need to know how to evaluate risk ...This book should be pressed into the palms of ' Independent Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago.He has published two academic books on heuristics, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart and Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox as well as a popular science book, Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making.
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Facing Uncertainty
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What is uncertainty?
Uncertainty refers to a lack of certainty or predictability about a situation or outcome. It is the state of not knowing what will happen in the future or the level of confidence one can have in a particular decision or event. Uncertainty can arise from various factors such as incomplete information, complexity, or randomness, and it can lead to feelings of doubt, anxiety, or hesitation. In many cases, uncertainty can be managed through risk assessment, planning, and flexibility in decision-making.
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What is extreme uncertainty?
Extreme uncertainty refers to a situation where there is a high level of unpredictability and ambiguity surrounding future outcomes. It is characterized by a lack of clear information or data to make informed decisions, leading to a wide range of potential outcomes. In such circumstances, traditional forecasting methods may not be effective, and decision-making becomes challenging. Extreme uncertainty can result from various factors such as rapid technological advancements, geopolitical instability, or global pandemics.
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What causes uncertainty regarding sexuality?
Uncertainty regarding sexuality can be caused by a variety of factors, including societal norms and expectations, lack of education or information about different sexual orientations, personal experiences that may challenge one's understanding of their own sexuality, and fear of judgment or discrimination from others. Additionally, the fluidity and complexity of human sexuality can also contribute to feelings of uncertainty as individuals may not fit neatly into traditional categories or labels. Overall, the multifaceted nature of sexuality and the diversity of human experiences can lead to uncertainty and confusion for many people.
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What causes uncertainty regarding virginity?
Uncertainty regarding virginity can be caused by various factors, including differing cultural beliefs and definitions of virginity. Additionally, lack of education and understanding about human anatomy and sexual health can contribute to confusion about what constitutes virginity. Social pressures and expectations surrounding virginity can also create uncertainty, as individuals may feel conflicted between personal beliefs and societal norms. Lastly, the subjective nature of virginity, which can be influenced by individual experiences and interpretations, can further contribute to uncertainty surrounding this concept.
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Embracing Uncertainty
'Susan Jeffers' wisdom feels like a precious gift. Her counsel is profound and meaningful in such challenging times.' MARIANNE WILLIAMSON'Original, courageous and brilliant!' WARREN FARRELL* * * * * * * * * *Nobody knows what will happen in the next moment of our lives.Whatever is in store for us, the only thing we CAN be sure of is that nothing in life is certain. And since we all fear the unknown, life's uncertainty can be a constant source of worry to us. But, as bestselling author Susan Jeffers explains, life doesn't have to be one worry after the next, a steady stream of 'what if's', and a constant attempt to create a secure haven for ourselves.In EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY she emphasises that an unknown future doesn't prevent a rich and abundant life, and shows how by enjoying life's unpredictability we transform ourselves from a position of fear to one filled with excitement and potential. Through invaluable case-studies, exercises and her pragmatic wisdom, Susan convinces us, above all, that life is exhilarating because of, not in spite of the uncertainty.
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Taming Uncertainty
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure?Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty.Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do.Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty.They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others.This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change.They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments.Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
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Schooling as Uncertainty : An Ethnographic Memoir in Comparative Education
In today’s uncertain world, few beliefs remain as firmly entrenched as the optimistic view that more schooling will lead to a better life.Though this may be true in the aggregate, how do we explain the circumstances when schooling fails to produce certainty or even does us harm?Schooling as Uncertainty addresses this question by combining ethnography and memoir as it guides readers on a 30-year journey through fieldwork and familyhood in Tanzania and academic life in the USA.Using reflexive, longitudinal ethnographic research, the book examines how African youth, particularly young women, employ schooling in an attempt to counter the uncertainties of marriage, child rearing, employment, and HIV/AIDS.Adopting a narrative approach, Vavrus tells the story of how her life became entangled with a community on Mount Kilimanjaro and how she and they sought greater security through schooling and, to varying degrees, succeeded.
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Schooling as Uncertainty : An Ethnographic Memoir in Comparative Education
In today’s uncertain world, few beliefs remain as firmly entrenched as the optimistic view that more schooling will lead to a better life.Though this may be true in the aggregate, how do we explain the circumstances when schooling fails to produce certainty or even does us harm?Schooling as Uncertainty addresses this question by combining ethnography and memoir as it guides readers on a 30-year journey through fieldwork and familyhood in Tanzania and academic life in the USA.Using reflexive, longitudinal ethnographic research, the book examines how African youth, particularly young women, employ schooling in an attempt to counter the uncertainties of marriage, child rearing, employment, and HIV/AIDS.Adopting a narrative approach, Vavrus tells the story of how her life became entangled with a community on Mount Kilimanjaro and how she and they sought greater security through schooling and, to varying degrees, succeeded.
Price: 26.99 £ | Shipping*: 3.99 £
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How can one hide uncertainty?
One can hide uncertainty by maintaining a confident demeanor, using vague language to avoid committing to a specific answer, and redirecting the conversation to a different topic. Additionally, one can prepare in advance by researching the topic in question to have some knowledge to fall back on. It is important to remember that it is okay to admit when you are unsure about something rather than trying to hide it.
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What causes uncertainty about vaccinations?
Uncertainty about vaccinations can be caused by a variety of factors. These may include misinformation or myths about vaccine safety and effectiveness, lack of understanding about how vaccines work, fear of potential side effects, and mistrust in the healthcare system. Additionally, conflicting information from different sources, such as social media or celebrities, can contribute to confusion and doubt about the importance of vaccinations. Overall, a lack of clear and accurate information can lead to uncertainty and hesitancy towards vaccines.
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What is uncertainty regarding transsexuality?
Uncertainty regarding transsexuality refers to the lack of understanding or clarity surrounding the experiences and identities of transgender individuals. This uncertainty can manifest in various ways, such as confusion about gender identity, societal misconceptions, and a lack of education about transgender issues. It can also lead to discrimination, stigma, and barriers to accessing appropriate healthcare and support services for transgender individuals. Overall, uncertainty regarding transsexuality highlights the importance of promoting awareness, acceptance, and inclusivity for all gender identities.
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What causes uncertainty while driving?
Uncertainty while driving can be caused by various factors such as poor weather conditions like heavy rain, fog, or snow, which can reduce visibility and road traction. Additionally, unfamiliar roads or driving in new locations can also lead to uncertainty as drivers may not be aware of the road layout or potential hazards. Other drivers' unpredictable behavior, such as sudden lane changes or running red lights, can also create uncertainty on the road. Lastly, mechanical issues with the vehicle, like strange noises or warning lights, can make drivers unsure about the safety and reliability of their vehicle.
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